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In a move that would affect markets for recycled raw materials as well as how transportation companies equip their fleets, truckmakers around the world are expected to produce more electric vehicle (EV) commercial trucks at a compound annual growth rate. (CAGR) of 37.1% over the next 10 years.
This estimate was made by UK-based IDTechEx in a report titled “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023-2043”. The report’s researchers considered not only battery-powered electric trucks, but also plug-in hybrids and those powered by hydrogen or other methods considered “zero emissions” configurations.
According to IDTechEx, “The vast majority of new trucks sold today are equipped with diesel engines, but like other on-road vehicle segments, this is about to change. The magnitude of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions needed to meet national targets effectively requires a complete decarbonization of the truck market over the next 30 years. The main truck manufacturers and automotive suppliers have now understood this; the fight for future market share is already underway.
IDTechEx states that its report “discusses the technical and economic aspects of zero emission truck deployment, key technologies and presents IDTechEx’s granular 20-year outlook for the zero emission truck market, with a focus on key regions. , Europe, United States United States and China.
So far, the change has been moderate, the company notes, with the global zero-emission truck market share in 2021 at just 0.4% of total sales, or about 13,000 units, with “the vast majority” of those in China, according to IDTechEx.
According to the research house, “Limited sales penetration in Western markets reflects a lack of available zero-emission trucks rather than a lack of demand. Big companies are calling for low-emission trucks (and greater support from governments) to help them meet their commitments to reduce their GHG emissions.
Most major automotive OEMs have launched or are about to launch a zero-emissions truck into regular production, says IDTechEx, which offers a timeline comparing the efforts of global truck makers (see chart).
The additional production capacity is why IDTechEx expects the global market to grow at this annual rate of 37% over the next 10 years.
As fleet operators in the waste and recycling industry understand, IDTechEx says the key to deploying zero-emission trucks involves their ability to “deliver useful range, as the weight and volume of lithium-ion batteries of today limit the energy that can be stored on board”. [an EV] a truck.”
IDTechEx however indicates that while “long-haul applications are not yet feasible, a large percentage of urban and regional routes are deliverable with battery electric trucks”. The US Department of Transportation suggests that around 50% of US freight moves less than 100 miles per day. This, says IDTechEx, means “there is [a] significant portion of truck operations that are ripe for electrification.
On the hydrogen front, the research firm says the lack of hydrogen refueling infrastructure is a barrier to such deployment. “However, several countries, including Japan, Korea, Germany and China, are supporting initiatives to build hydrogen refueling stations,” the firm adds.
Information on how to access the full report, which contains over 460 charts or slides, is available on this webpage.